QB Stock Market Week 13: Drake Maye is Taking All the Right Risks and Jalen Hurts Isn't

Here comes the playoff push. It’s go-time for the quarterbacks, whose shoulders will bear the weight and pressure that come with the final stretch before the postseason. Let’s take a look around the league at how these guys are performing.

In these quarterback rankings, I’m focused on monitoring the fluctuations of a quarterback’s performance throughout the season. No one — not even Matthew Stafford — is safe at the top. No one — not even J.J. McCarthy — is stuck at the bottom. There is room for quick ascent — and rapid decline. One question holds most important: What have you done for your team lately?

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I’ll just deliver some statistics that contextualize how rough it’s been for McCarthy. To make matters worse, he suffered a concussion last week and will miss time. If backup QB Max Brosmer is at all competent, he might just end up taking over — maybe for the rest of the season.

But again, to the stats:

• J.J. McCarthy currently ranks 851st out of 852 quarterbacks in EPA per dropback (among qualified passers) since 2000, per Tru Media. Who is 852? Jamarcus Russell.
• Justin Jefferson is averaging 53 yards per game in six games with McCarthy. Jefferson averaged 90 yards per game with Sam Darnold and 99 yards per game with Kirk Cousins.
• McCarthy has thrown 10 interceptions in six starts and has four two-interception games. To some degree, he’s lucky he hasn’t thrown more. He has 12 turnover-worthy plays during that span, per PFF.
• In Week 12, McCarthy finished with a passer rating of 34.2. If a QB spiked the ball every play, his passer rating would be 39.6. This is the second time this season (over six starts) he has finished with a passer rating below 39.6.

There’s a way for McCarthy to recover from all this. But it would be against all odds. He has processing problems and throwing motion problems that could take multiple offseasons to fix.

With Michael Penix out for the season and Kirk Cousins a cut candidate this offseason, will the Falcons prioritize taking another QB in the 2026 draft? (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)

With Bryce Young enduring another uneven season, should the Panthers exercise his fifth-year option this offseason? (Photo by Brooke Sutton/Getty Images)

There was a lot to celebrate from this game. Despite his circumstances, Ward is taking steps forward as a passer and operator of his offense. It’s a miracle that Ward hasn’t taken a step back as a player. (Just look at what happened to Caleb Williams last year in Chicago.) But Ward‘s in-season progress — even the smallest forms — makes me wonder if he might see exponential growth with the right coaching staff next year. (Think: Drake Maye.)

In the early phase of the game, likely when Ward was on script, he looked confident and fluent in his progression. There were a number of plays where he looked to have experience beyond his years in the pocket. Ward also flashed his creative side, with a Brett Favre impression — whipping a sidearm throw to his check-down as he fell to the ground — and even a Josh Allen impression — rolling right and slinging the ball across his body into the middle of the field (which is most coaches' nightmare) for a big play.

His potential is outrageous.

The problems started to show up when the Titans appeared to run out of scripted plays. The Seahawks defense appeared to be one step ahead of Ward, who resorted to checkdowns so often that the Seattle defensive backs started jumping those underneath routes. I counted three short throws that could’ve been interceptions — and maybe even pick-sixes.

There’s no surefire way to develop a quarterback, but there have often been bright and steady offensive minds behind the recent developmental success stories. Look at Josh McDaniels and Maye. Look at Ben Johnson and Williams. Look at Kliff Kingsbury and Jayden Daniels.

So … is Mike McCoy that guy?

Is Klint Kubiak that guy?

Brock Purdy had a nightmare performance versus the Panthers. Will he find the consistency needed to lead the 49ers to the postseason? (Photo by Jed Jacobsohn/Getty Images)

The situational awareness that has made Hurts so successful is also what seemed to burn him against the Cowboys. 

That situational awareness is what has helped the Eagles protect their lead in so many games. He has taken care of the football, with an absurd .3% interception rate. He has not been aggressive with the lead (and sometimes without it). And, particularly last season, he and Saquon Barkley have taken care of their opponents by killing clock.

That approach failed in Dallas.

And to some degree, A.J. Brown must feel vindicated about his comments over the Eagles’ "conservative" approach. Brown had eight catches for 110 yards and a touchdown this week, and was good throughout the game. But when not targeting Brown, Hurts’ production went largely silent in the second half, which opened the door for Dak Prescott and the Cowboys to stage their comeback. In the third quarter, Hurts resorted to checking the ball down and looking off open receivers. And it seemed like he was acting as a directive of the coaching staff, because the playcalling was also conservative. 

On third-and-12, he hit his first read: a 7-yard route from Dallas Goedert. Then Philly punted. That begs the question: Why was that the first read? Well, it was probably to set up Jake Elliott for a field goal. But … he missed it.

The Eagles aren’t broken. But so long as Barkley continues to rush at 3.7 yards per carry, they are going to remain vulnerable. That is, unless Hurts can break his conservative streak and start to convert big plays at the rate he did last postseason.

It felt like neither Jones nor Shane Steichen had an answer for Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo’s blitzes. 

The good news is that few NFL offenses do have an answer. Ask Josh Allen.

But the bad news is that the issue showed up time and time again on third downs (and obvious passing situations). And it proved to be the fatal flaw that sunk Indy. Spags stumped Jones on every single third down in the fourth quarter. And the Chiefs kept gifting the ball to Patrick Mahomes, who finally got his first one-possession win of the year.

Interestingly enough, this was a messy game from start to finish for the Colts. They had players running the wrong routes on two crucial plays on two separate drives. One of those mistakes might’ve cost them four points, where they settled for a field goal on a play that could’ve scored (or at least picked up the first down). 

Jones wasn’t great. His play-calling wasn’t great. His pass-catchers weren’t great.

It just felt like a game where the Colts didn’t get the memo that the Chiefs are still the Chiefs. I’m not sure Jones or the Colts are broken heading into the important stretch of their schedule with two games apiece against the Jaguars and the Texans on the horizon.

But the Colts need to sort out their third-down issues — now. Or else they’ll be in danger of giving up what we thought was a dominant lead in the AFC South division. 

They say that sacks are a quarterback stat.

In this case, they’re wrong.

The other logical spot to blame would be the offensive line.

But if you did that, you’d again be wrong.

No, Allen’s career-high eight sacks were largely a product of the Houston Texans’ tight coverage, in which DeMeco Ryans had fierce and founded confidence. So for the Bills, that meant those eight sacks were actually … receiver stats. And let’s not let offensive coordinator Joe Brady off the hook. He’s not doing much to set up his passing game for success, and that’s not just route concepts. It’s also about how he’s setting up pass protection, not giving Allen extra blockers against Will Anderson Jr., Danielle Hunter and company. 

"When they hit the quarterback 12 times, I don’t like that," Bills coach Sean McDermott said after the game in Houston. "I don’t like that stat at all. It’s not a healthy way to play or a healthy way to keep our quarterback healthy through the remainder of the season. So that’s just not a good formula right there."

But the eight sacks weren’t the only problem for Allen. He also had turnover issues. And I wrote just last week that I sensed this sort of performance was coming. And frankly, it sets the stage for a performance like this in the postseason, too. Allen had a rough game, with two decisions he surely regrets on the two interceptions. 

The problem is that the Bills need more help. They’re not going to get reinforcements from a player personnel standpoint. But … Brian Daboll is out there. He’s the guy who helped Allen have the best statistical season of his career. McDermott said it wasn’t happening.

But … Daboll is out there.

Right now, there’s a strong case of the "haves" and "have-nots" at quarterback.

Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and even — to some degree — Lamar Jackson are struggling without the support of a true WR1. 

Meanwhile, Prescott, Joe Burrow (when healthy) and Matthew Stafford have excelled because their rosters feature two WR1s.

It’s a matter of preference when deciding who’s "best" between the Cowboys, Bengals and Rams receiving corps. But with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens, Dallas is in consideration. That’s a big reason why Prescott looks as good as he has ever looked. He trusts his wideouts with every throw — in some cases too much, as we saw on Prescott’s foolish interception in the red zone.

But this offense proved it will never not be dangerous. Not even down 21 to the Eagles.

It’s probably too little too late for the Cowboys. They have a 9% chance of making the playoffs. They might have to win every game to do it. And they have the Chiefs on Thanksgiving before heading to Detroit for Week 14.

But perhaps Dallas can build a real contender around this offensive core in 2026. That will mean retaining George Pickens on a contract extension. And you’re crazy if you think Jerry Jones will make that process painless.

It doesn’t feel like people are taking the Patriots seriously as Super Bowl contenders, and that’s in large part because of their strength of schedule — or lack thereof. It’s hard to believe in Maye and the Patriots when their best wins have come over the Bills and the Buccaneers.

But Maye’s last game speaks to why New England might somehow be a dark horse. (Can you be a darkhorse when you’re also the No. 1 seed?)

That’s because this was one of his worst games in a while. Or, at the very least, this was one of his worst starts to a game in a while. Hit just three of his first seven passes for 16 yards and an interception. He was struggling with the pressure and seemed to think he could throw every pass off platform (in some cases for no apparent reason).

His wake-up call arrived with an interception that he simply airmailed to tight end Hunter Henry up the seam. There was really no explanation except: Bad, bad, bad throw.

"Probably mentally, not his best performance," Pats coach Mike Vrabel said after the game. 

Then things changed. Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels got Maye throwing the ball quickly, with hot routes to beat the blitz and rollouts to get him working across the defense. He did finish the game struggling against man defense. But he also completed a few of the pinpoint passes — some downfield and some through tight windows — that have defined his season.

"They had some good stuff that I didn’t do well directing or get us in the right looks," Maye said. "I have to be better at the line of scrimmage. Credit to them for catching us on some. I have to do my part to help us play cleaner football."

The reason this performance felt encouraging was that Maye figured out how to beat what the Bengals threw at him. With more film on Maye, opposing defenses will have new challenges ready for him. Especially in the postseason. But he and the Patriots figured out how to work their way through their issues in real time. That might just be the most valuable skill in the playoffs. Of course, it’ll be a lot harder to pull that off against the Chiefs — rather than the Bengals.

But make no mistake: There was a silver lining to New England’s struggles.

Before joining FOX Sports as an NFL reporter and columnist, Henry McKenna spent seven years covering the Patriots for USA TODAY Sports Media Group and Boston Globe Media. Follow him on Twitter at @henrycmckenna.

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