2024 NFL Playoff Picture: Matchups, analysis for Wild Card Weekend

Now the real fun begins.

The 14-team NFL playoff field was finally set when both the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Denver Broncos locked up the last two postseason berths on Sunday. And the seedings and matchups were all done when the Detroit Lions beat the Minnesota Vikings to lock up the No. 1 seed in the NFC on Sunday night.

So the Lions and the Kansas City Chiefs will both get first-round byes, while the other 12 teams start their playoff runs next weekend. The first-round slate includes one huge, intra-division battle between two familiar AFC North foes, and three rematches in the three games in the NFC.

And that's just the beginning of the grueling road to Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans on Feb. 9 (3:30 p.m. ET on FOX).

Here's a closer look at the wild-card round:

AFC

1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-2) — First-round bye

Forget all about the season finale. The Denver Broncos were playing for a playoff berth and the Chiefs were resting everyone that matters.

Through the first 16 games, the Chiefs were certainly a curiosity. They weren't the offensive juggernaut everyone always expects them to be (they ranked 13th on offense and averaged just 24.1 points per game). This team was powered (and saved) by their defense all season long. They also played a lot of close games. In fact, 11 of their 15 wins were by one score or less.

That might seem like good news to the rest of the AFC, which would like to believe the Chiefs are vulnerable. But it could also indicate that the two-time defending champs are battle-tested and know how to win the close ones, which will really help them in their quest for the NFL's first Super Bowl three-peat.

Also, they do still have Patrick Mahomes. Even if he didn't have a Mahomes-like season, he could still be a huge advantage for them in the postseason.

7. Denver Broncos (10-7) at 2. Buffalo Bills (13-4) — Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

The Broncos lost two of their last three, had to withstand a late charge from the Cincinnati Bengals, and got a break by playing a Chiefs team with nothing to play for in their finale. But Sean Payton got them in, which nobody thought he could do at the start of the season. And he did it with a rookie quarterback, Bo Nix, who nobody thought would emerge as an Offensive Rookie of the Year candidate.

It's almost not fair that they have to open against a powerhouse Bills team that has been to the playoffs six straight years and has one of the NFL's best offenses led by an MVP-caliber quarterback in Josh Allen. Buffalo was on a 10-1 run before their backups lost in New England on Sunday. That included wins over the Kansas City Chiefs and at the Detroit Lions — the two teams which were considered the best in football all season long.

The Broncos will need to play a perfect game to beat them. That might not be easy for Nix, who got the Broncos into playoff position by playing mostly mistake-free football, but has thrown six interceptions over the last five games. That's not a good trend considering the Bills defense had a league-best 32 takeaways this season, and they had the best turnover ratio (plus-24) by far.

6. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7) at 3. Baltimore Ravens (12-5) — Saturday, 8 p.m. ET (Prime)

What a reversal of fortunes the end of the season has been for these two teams. On Dec. 8, the Steelers beat the Browns to move to 10-3 and they had a two-game lead over the Ravens in the AFC North. Since then, the Steelers lost four straight to end the season, while the Ravens won four straight to win the division title.

The big game in there was the last matchup between these teams — a 34-17 Ravens' win on Dec. 21 in Baltimore. The Ravens pounded the Steelers' defense that day behind Derrick Henry's 162 rushing yards, while Lamar Jackson threw three touchdown passes.

Jackson (12 touchdown passes, 1 interception) and Henry (128.5 yards per game, three touchdowns) have been on fire for the Ravens over the last four weeks. Meanwhile, Steelers quarterback Russell Wilson has faded. He's averaged just 174.5 passing yards per game over the last four games, with a total of four touchdown passes and two interceptions.

They actually split the season series, with the Steelers winning in Pittsburgh back in November. But right now, these look like two teams heading in completely opposite directions.

5. Los Angeles Chargers (10-7) at 4. Houston Texans (10-7) — Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (CBS)

As much as Jim Harbaugh probably loves seeing his brother, he has to be thrilled that his Chargers won on Sunday so they could avoid a first-round trip to Baltimore to face John Harbaugh's Ravens. Instead of facing that red-hot team, they get to travel to Houston to face a Texans team that hasn't looked like a playoff team in months.

The Texans did beat the awful Titans on Sunday to snap a two-game losing streak, but they were a 5-1 team once, looking like a possible Super Bowl contender. Since then, they've gone 5-6, including 0-4 against teams that made the playoffs. Quarterback C.J. Stroud has struggled too, throwing eight interceptions in his last seven starts.

The Chargers, meanwhile, shook off a bad stretch where they lost three of four and finished their season on a three-game winning streak. Quarterback Justin Herbert got hot in that streak too, averaging 303.7 yards per game and throwing seven touchdowns with just one interception. The Chargers offense, which had ranked in the bottom third of the league, has averaged 36 points in the last three games, too.

They also got starting running back J.K. Dobbins back just in time for the playoffs, which will be a big boost for them.

NFC

1. Detroit Lions (15-2) — First-round bye

For the first time in their history (or at least in the 49 years the NFL has been seeding its playoff teams), the Lions are the top seed in the NFC. And honestly, it probably shouldn't be a surprise because Dan Campbell's team has been on a mission ever since they blew that 24-7 halftime lead in the NFC Championship Game last year.

They wrapped up that top seed with a win over the surprising Minnesota Vikings on Sunday night. That let them finish with 14 wins in their last 15 games, with the only loss coming in a wild game against the Buffalo Bills. They have one of the NFL's best offenses behind quarterback Jared Goff, and clearly one of the gutsiest coaches in Campbell.

The biggest worry for the Lions is injuries. They've been devastated by them, especially on defense where they lost another key player in rookie cornerback Terrion Arnold, their first-round pick, to a foot injury against the Vikings. They have a chance to get healthier with a bye week. Running back David Montgomery (knee) hinted that he's close to returning. 

But this team is deep, dangerous, well-coached, battle-tested and obviously still hungry for more.

7. Green Bay Packers (11-6) at 2. Philadelphia Eagles (14-3) — Sunday, 4:30 p.m. ET (FOX)

The Packers will have some injuries to worry about heading into this game. Receiver Christian Watson was carted off with a knee injury on Sunday, while quarterback Jordan Love left early with an elbow injury. Love said he's fine and he'll play next weekend, though that remains to be seen. The Eagles at least had the luxury of resting their starters, so they'll go in pretty healthy. They also roll into the playoffs on a 12-1 run.

The Packers, meanwhile, have had a fascinating season. Before their loss to the Bears in the finale, their only losses this season were to the Lions and Vikings (twice each) and the Eagles — three of the best teams in the NFL. They lost to the Eagles 34-29 way back on Opening Weekend in Brazil. Love and Eagles QB Jalen Hurts combined for four touchdown passes in that game, but also three interceptions.

It's a powerhouse battle if both quarterbacks are healthy (Hurts has missed two games with a concussion, but is expected back). Both teams have top-10 offenses and defenses and top-5 running games, plus stellar running backs in Philadelphia's Saquon Barkley (2,005 rushing yards, 13 rushing touchdowns) and Green Bay's Josh Jacobs (1,329-15).

6. Washington Commanders (12-5) at 3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-7) — Sunday, 7:30 p.m. ET (NBC/Peacock)

Moving up to the No. 6 seed and avoiding another game against the Eagles was probably good for the Commanders, but getting the Bucs in the first round isn't exactly a prize. Tampa has been as hot as any team in football, winning six of their last seven games and averaging 31.9 points per game along the way. 

That surge happened after they went into their bye week on a four-game slide. But when they came out, receiver Mike Evans was healthy and quarterback Baker Mayfield caught fire. He's thrown 16 touchdown passes (with five interceptions) in the last five games alone.

So they will be quite a test for the Commanders' top-10 defense and that could also put a lot of pressure on rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, who had a spectacular season that will likely end with him being named the NFL's Offensive Rookie of the Year. Bucs coach Todd Bowles is known for disguising defenses that can confuse rookie quarterbacks. But Daniels did OK the last time he faced Tampa, completing 17 of 24 passes for 184 yards and running for 88 yards and two touchdowns, too.

Of course, that was way back in Week 1 and the Bucs won the game 37-20 thanks to Mayfield's four touchdown passes. Daniels is much improved since then. In fact, he led the Commanders to five straight wins to end the season, so they're heading in red-hot too.

5. Minnesota Vikings (14-3) at 4. Los Angeles Rams (10-7) — Monday, 8 p.m. ET (ESPN/ABC)

The magic of Sam Darnold's shocking revival season disappeared on Sunday night with one of his worst games of the season in the biggest spot. He struggled with his accuracy all game and really had problems in the red zone, which cost the Vikings their shot at the No. 1 seed and sent them on the road to Los Angeles for a dangerous first-round game.

Maybe it had more to do with the Lions' defense. And to be fair, the Rams' defense is nowhere near the Lions' class. In fact, though they had a nice run in December, they were statistically one of the NFL's worst defenses all season long. What makes the Rams dangerous is their offensive potential with quarterback Matthew Stafford, running back Kyren Williams and receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. But they've struggled there too, averaging just 14.7 points in the last three games Stafford played.

Darnold had an efficient game against the Rams when they played back in October (18 of 25, 240 yards, two touchdowns in a 30-20 Rams' win), though the Vikings only managed 276 yards. This game will likely turn on Darnold's play. He had thrown 18 touchdown passes with just two interceptions in his seven games before Sunday night. If that Darnold shows up, the Rams could have a very tough time.

Ralph Vacchiano is an NFL Reporter for FOX Sports. He spent the previous six years covering the Giants and Jets for SNY TV in New York, and before that, 16 years covering the Giants and the NFL for the New York Daily News. Follow him on Twitter at @RalphVacchiano.

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