Nothing about the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs seems normal, but if there is any "normal" round, the quarterfinal round (Round of 12) would be it with relatively straightforward tracks when it comes to strategy and setups.
At least that's the way for the races at New Hampshire and Kansas to open the round. The Charlotte road course is notorious for unpredictable outcomes with its mixed layout that uses parts of the oval and then an infield road-course portion.
NASCAR’s playoffs are based on three-race rounds (every team still competes even if not a playoff team). If a driver who's still alive in the playoffs wins in the round, that’s an automatic bid to the next round. The four winless drivers with the fewest points are eliminated after each round.
Drivers have earned playoff points with stage and race wins, as well as based on their regular-season finishes, which are added to their point total when the points are reset at the start of each round, which can help them advance.
At the championship race, the best finisher among the four finalists is the champion.
The 2025 playoff tracks:
Opening Round (Round of 16): Darlington (winner: Chase Briscoe), World Wide Technology Raceway (winner: Denny Hamlin) and Bristol (winner: Christopher Bell).
Quarterfinal Round (Round of 12): New Hampshire (1.058-mile oval), Kansas (1.5-mile oval) and Charlotte road course (2.28-mile road course). The only repeat track in this round is Kansas, where teams raced in May.
Semifinal Round (Round of Eight): Las Vegas (1.5-mile oval), Talladega (2.5-mile high-banked superspeedway) and Martinsville (0.528-mile oval). Teams have raced at all three of these tracks this year.
Championship: Phoenix (1-mile oval). Teams last raced at Phoenix in March.
Here are my playoff rankings based on who has the best shot at winning the title:
1. Denny Hamlin
Joe Gibbs Racing: No. 11 Toyota
Position: First, +26 on the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, Seventh; Gateway, First; Bristol, 31st
2024 New Hampshire finish: 24th
2025 Kansas finish: 36th
2024 Charlotte road course finish: 14th
Hamlin didn't have a great Bristol, but he didn't need to have a great Bristol. This next round will be telling. If he has hiccups or is a tick slow, the doubt of whether this could be the year could seep into the team mojo. As quickly as the good vibe was great with the win at Gateway, it can evaporate with a couple poor outings.
Prediction: Championship Four
2. Chase Briscoe
Joe Gibbs Racing: No. 19 Toyota
Position: Sixth, +10 on the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, First; Gateway, Second; Bristol, Ninth
2024 New Hampshire finish: Second
2025 Kansas finish: Fourth
2024 Charlotte road course finish: 36th
Opening the playoffs with three consecutive top-10s keeps lifting Briscoe up this list because those finishes likely would get him to the championship round. But this is his first year as a serious contender. Can he really make it happen?
Prediction: Eliminated in the semifinal round
3. Kyle Larson
Hendrick Motorsports: No. 5 Chevrolet
Position: Third, +24 on the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, 19th; Gateway, 12th; Bristol, 32nd
2024 New Hampshire finish: Fourth
2025 Kansas finish: First
2024 Charlotte road course finish: First
This upcoming round was made for Larson with his ability on these tracks. So despite not earning a top-10 finish in the opening round, Larson should be able to forget about it relatively quickly. His recent relatively mediocre finishes could be difficult for many to ignore, but Larson likely can do just that.
Prediction: Championship Four
4. Christopher Bell
Joe Gibbs Racing: No. 20 Toyota
Position: Fourth, +20 on the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, 29th; Gateway, Seventh; Bristol, First
2024 New Hampshire finish: First
2025 Kansas finish: Second
2024 Charlotte road course finish: Second
He's baaack. Bell snapped a 24-race windless streak by capturing Bristol and maybe that will give him and his team the swagger they had during their three-race winning streak earlier this year. The winner at Phoenix earlier this year, Bell knows if he can get to the championship round, he'd be one of the favorites.
Prediction: Championship Four (change from eliminated in semifinal round)
5. Ryan Blaney
Team Penske: No. 12 Ford
Position: Fifth, +19 on the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, 18th; Gateway, Fourth; Bristol, Fourth
2024 New Hampshire finish: 25th
2025 Kansas finish: Third
2024 Charlotte road course finish: 10th
Back-to-back top-fives in races where he battled some adversity once again show that Blaney will grind his way to the next round. It is rare to have a race where Blaney isn't in the top-five at some point, and that keeps him as a championship threat.
Prediction: Championship Four
6. William Byron
Hendrick Motorsports: No. 24 Chevrolet
Position: Second, +24 on the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, 21st; Gateway, 11th; Bristol, 12th
2024 New Hampshire finish: 26th
2025 Kansas finish: Seventh
2024 Charlotte road course finish: Third
Where has the Byron of earlier this season gone? No top-10s in the opening round of the playoffs was not the expectation for this team. He didn't need the top-10s to easily advance, but running at this pace will have him thinking about 2026 sooner rather than later.
Prediction: Eliminated in semifinal round (change from making championship round)
7. Chase Elliott
Hendrick Motorsports: No. 9 Chevrolet
Position: Seventh, +5 on the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, 17th; Gateway, Third; Bristol, 38th
2024 New Hampshire finish: 18th
2025 Kansas finish: 15th
2024 Charlotte road course finish: Fifth
Elliott was crashed out at Bristol and thought he was knocked out of the playoffs. Nope. He easily advanced, and now he goes to a round where he has won at two of the three tracks (Kansas and Charlotte). The first round should give him some optimism that he ran well at Gateway — and if he can parlay that into a good run at New Hampshire, that should propel him to the semifinal round with his strength at the other two tracks.
Prediction: Eliminated in semifinal round
8. Bubba Wallace
23XI Racing: No. 23 Toyota
Position: Eighth, +1 on the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, Sixth; Gateway, Eighth; Bristol, 34th
2024 New Hampshire finish: 34th
2025 Kansas finish: 33rd
2024 Charlotte road course finish: Ninth
Wallace clinched a spot in this round before the end of the race Saturday night at Bristol. So he had a solid opening round until late in that Bristol event, where a crash ended his night early. Can he continue to perform at a high level? He can … but consistency has sometimes been his biggest hurdle.
Prediction: Eliminated in the semifinal round
9. Tyler Reddick
23XI Racing: No. 45 Toyota
Position: 12th, -3 behind the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, Second; Gateway, 16th; Bristol, 15th
2024 New Hampshire finish: Sixth
2025 Kansas finish: 17th
2024 Charlotte road course finish: 11th
Reddick has continued to eke out the results he needs to keep his championship hopes alive. His ranking on this list is more indicative of the Toyota prowess in recent weeks rather than his own. But few would be surprised if he finds what he needs to challenge for wins.
Prediction: Eliminated in the quarterfinal round
10. Ross Chastain
Trackhouse Racing: No. 1 Chevrolet
Position: 11th, -2 behind the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, 11th; Gateway, 24th; Bristol, 19th
2024 New Hampshire finish: 10th
2025 Kansas finish: 18th
2024 Charlotte road course finish: 28th
Chastain traditionally has been strong at Kansas and he and his Trackhouse teammates all have been strong on road courses. He certainly limped through the opening round, and this next round will be a test of some of the competition personnel changes the organization has made in recent months.
Prediction: Eliminated in the quarterfinal round
11. Joey Logano
Team Penske: No. 22 Ford
Position: 10th, -2 behind the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, 20th; Gateway, Fifth; Bristol, Fifth
2024 New Hampshire finish: 32nd
2025 Kansas finish: Ninth
2024 Charlotte road course finish: Eighth
The defending Cup champion (and three-time overall) just hasn't seemed happy with his speed. And even with that, he finished fifth in the last two races. So if he can find something — and he often does — he will be a threat. But he needs to win, or at least lead laps threatening to win, soon to be considered a formidable championship contender.
Prediction: Eliminated in the quarterfinal round
12. Austin Cindric
Team Penske: No. 2 Ford
Position: Ninth, -1 behind the cutoff
2025 playoff results: Darlington, 12th; Gateway, 19th; Bristol, 30th
2024 New Hampshire finish: 19th
2025 Kansas finish: 11th
2024 Charlotte road course finish: Second
Cindric did what he had to do and even a little bit more in the opening round. That won't be enough in this next round and the overall speed for him and his teammates Blaney and Logano is concerning. But if he is in contention at the Charlotte road course, he could make something happen. It still feels like he is a longshot for the title.
Prediction: Eliminated in the quarterfinal round
Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR and INDYCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motorsports, including over 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobpockrass.
Fox News First
Get all the stories you need-to-know from the most powerful name in news delivered first thing every morning to your inbox.
By entering your email and clicking the Subscribe button, you agree to the Fox News Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and agree to receive content and promotional communications from Fox News. You understand that you can opt-out at any time.
