FLASHBACK: Ted Cruz predicts ballooning Obamacare subsidies now at center of shutdown fight

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FLASHBACK: Cruz forecasts skyrocketing healthcare subsidies that, a decade later, are at center of 22-day shutdown

Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, points to research from healthcare expert Avik Roy on Obamacare's failure to keep premium costs down. (Credit: C-SPAN, Sept. 24, 2013)

Over a decade ago, Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, predicted that healthcare premiums would skyrocket, even in the face of subsidies put into effect under Obamacare that were meant to bring them down. 

Today, the ballooning of those premiums and their accompanying subsidies are at the center of the 22-day shutdown that looks poised to get longer still.

"Despite Obamacare subsidies, many Americans will still be paying higher premiums in 2014 as a result of Obamacare," Cruz said in 2013, referring to the Affordable Care Act (ACA).

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Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, speaks at the Conservative Political Action Conference, CPAC, at the Gaylord National Resort & Convention Center, Feb. 20, 2025. (Jose Luis Magana/AP Photo)

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In his 2013 floor speech, Cruz pointed to research from Avik Roy, a healthcare researcher who, at the time, was a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute. Roy’s research made the case that subsidies passed by the Obama administration would do little to stop government-backed healthcare plans from growing more expensive over time or competing effectively with non-government-backed plans. 

But even those forecasts have paled in comparison to the costs of the government’s emergency response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

President Barack Obama delivers remarks on Obamacare at an event in Washington, Nov. 4, 2013. (Reuters)

The subsidies under Obamacare have vastly expanded in recent years. An emergency provision included in President Joe Biden's 2021 American Rescue Plan widened the range of eligible applicants as a response to the global pandemic. 

Now that those COVID-era provisions are set to sunset at the end of 2025, an expiration date set by Democrats themselves, Democrats are voicing alarm that Obamacare policyholders will have to shoulder the costs of health insurance without the enhanced supplemental aid. 

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According to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan think tank that focuses on fiscal policy, continuing the expanded credits could cost upwards of $30 billion annually. Findings by KFF, a healthcare policy group, say that over 90% of the 24 million Obamacare enrollees make use of the enhanced credits.

KFF analysis indicates that the enhanced premium tax credits saved subsidized enrollees an average of $705 last year. 

Democrats in Congress, led by House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., have demanded some sort of extension to the already expanded COVID-era subsidies as a condition for passing spending legislation to end the current government shutdown, which is now the longest full shutdown in history.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., right, talk with reporters following their meeting with President Donald Trump and Republican leaders on the government funding crisis, at the Capitol in Washington, Sept. 29, 2025. (J. Scott Applewhite/AP Photo)

Republicans, who maintain that the subsidies are completely unrelated to government funding considerations, have said lawmakers will address the subsidies when the government is open again.

The most conservative members in Congress have said cutting back on the subsidies is key to returning the government to pre-COVID levels of funding.

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Lawmakers in the Senate have voted 11 times on a short-term spending extension meant to keep the government open through Nov. 21 but have so far failed to move past the gridlock over the enhanced premium tax credits.

Cruz did not immediately respond to Fox News Digital's request for comment.