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College Football Playoff Predictions: Joel Klatt Projects the 12-Team Field
Published October 01, 2025
It’s never too early to start thinking about the College Football Playoff, especially as the calendar turns from September to October.
FOX Sports lead college football analyst Joel Klatt is taking another crack at projecting the CFP field now that we have a month’s worth of games under our belt. Some teams, like Ohio State and Oregon, appear to be locks to make the CFP, while preseason darlings Clemson and Notre Dame are clinging to fading hopes.
Before he unveiled his projections on "The Joel Klatt Show," Klatt also predicted how he sees the conference championships shaking out. Here’s a look at how Klatt thinks the rest of the season will go down.
Conference championships
Big Ten: Ohio State beats Oregon
Big 12: Texas Tech beats Utah
ACC: Miami (Fla.) beats Georgia Tech
Seeds
1. Ohio State
After securing a victory over Texas in Week 1, Klatt believes the Buckeyes could run the table through the Big Ten Championship Game because they avoid Oregon in the regular season.
"Oregon and Ohio State, up to this point, have been the two best teams in the Big Ten," Klatt said. "All due respect to Indiana, obviously, but those two would be my championship game participants."
Ohio State still has games against Penn State and Michigan on its schedule, but the defending national champions have certainly looked the part through its first four games. The Buckeyes lead the nation in scoring defense and are eighth in total defense, while quarterback Julian Sayin leads the nation in completion percentage and is eighth in yards per attempt.
Julian Sayin has been one of the best quarterbacks in the country in a handful of metrics. (Photo by Robin Alam/ISI Photos/ISI Photos via Getty Images)
2. Miami (Fla.)
Ahead of the major tilt between Miami and Florida State this weekend, the winner of that game will seemingly control its own destiny in the ACC. Klatt has the Hurricanes winning that game, with their wins over Notre Dame, USF and Florida helping their seeding.
"I think that they win the ACC and they, in all likelihood, would be an undefeated or at worst a one-loss team," Klatt said.
Carson Beck has certainly been a boost for Miami at quarterback, but defensive lineman Rueben Bain Jr. headlines the Canes’ defensive line, which has been widely praised throughout the country.
3. Oregon
Klatt’s reasoning for Oregon as the No. 3 seed is simple.
"If Oregon were to play Ohio State as an undefeated team and lose, they would be the No. 3 seed in this situation," Klatt said.
Oregon running the table in the regular season seems plausible, especially after winning arguably its toughest game of the year at Penn State on Saturday. Two of its three toughest remaining games are at home (Indiana, USC), while it has to travel to Washington to close out the year.
Quarterback Dante Moore became the Heisman favorite following his impressive performance against Penn State, while the Ducks’ defense is top 12 in both yards against and scoring.
4. Texas
There’s been plenty of panic surrounding quarterback Arch Manning with his underwhelming play through the first third of the year. However, Klatt is bullish that he will right the ship.
"I have them winning that league, and yet I could see them stumbling along the way, still getting into that game and winning that game," Klatt said of Texas.
Arch Manning hasn't had the best start to the year, but he had a promising performance against Sam Houston in Week 4. (Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)
While Texas already has one loss, it came in non-conference play, meaning the Longhorns could still afford a conference loss and remain in the hunt for an SEC title. They might need that cushion, too, with four games remaining against teams currently ranked in the top 25: Oklahoma, Vanderbilt, Georgia, and Texas A&M.
5. Texas Tech
For Klatt, Texas Tech is the "class of the Big 12" and he thinks that the team has a "good chance to be, at worst, 12-1."
"I'm a big believer in Texas Tech at this point after covering them and meeting with their team and coaches," Klatt said. "There's just something real about not only Joey McGuire, but that defense and that defensive line. Their linebacker crew, including Jacob Rodriguez, who's one of the better players in the country, and he was the national defensive player of the week after that win over Utah."
Texas Tech has been one of the most well-rounded teams in the nation to this point, ranking second in total offense and 11th in total defense. The Red Raiders still have two games remaining against ranked opponents: Arizona State and BYU.
6. Ole Miss
As Ole Miss knocked off LSU in Week 5, Klatt is bullish on the Rebels’ chances of making a run at the College Football Playoff.
"Another team that you look up and their schedule is just built in order to succeed this year," Klatt said. "Their SEC schedule is not as difficult as other SEC schedules. You look at the win that they had last weekend over LSU, and it's Ole Miss."
To Klatt’s point, Ole Miss only has two ranked opponents left on its schedule (Georgia, Oklahoma), which is relatively light compared to the rest of the SEC. Trinidad Chambliss throwing for at least 300 yards in each of his first three starts certainly helps the rest of the slate feel winnable for Ole Miss.
Trinidad Chambliss staked his claim to being considered the best quarterback in the SEC following another 300-yard passing performance against LSU. (Photo by Randy J. Williams/Getty Images)
7. Texas A&M
Texas A&M is Klatt’s seventh seed for two reasons: quarterback and defensive play.
"They've got that ability," Klatt said. "I know they didn't throw it well against Auburn. They threw well against Notre Dame. I think that Marcel Reed, while streaky, has the ability to hurt you through the air and, obviously, with his legs. They're great at wide receiver. They can run the football and their defense just showed that they can totally dominate and win an entire game."
The Aggies’ defense allowed just 177 total yards to Auburn this past weekend, but what might be more impressive is that Texas A&M didn’t allow a single third-down conversion (0-13). Texas A&M also has a favorable SEC schedule, with three ranked games remaining (LSU, Missouri, Texas). But in that game against Texas in Austin, Klatt gave the edge to the Longhorns.
8. Alabama
Similar to Texas A&M, Klatt is a believer in Alabama’s quarterback play and, thus, its playoff chances.
"[Ty Simpson] plays absolutely like the best quarterback in the country," Klatt said of Alabama’s win over Georgia. "I think Ty Simpson is really good. Now they're going to need to run the football better. Their defense played decent, although they didn't stop the run all that great against Georgia.
"Now they're in a great position with their loss being in the non-conference to control their own destiny."
Simpson climbed up to No. 2 on the Heisman oddsboard following Alabama’s win over Georgia, but the Crimson Tide still face a tough stretch. Fortunately, of the five ranked opponents Alabama has left on its schedule, four are at home (Vanderbilt, Tennessee, LSU, Oklahoma) with only Missouri on the road.
9. Penn State
Penn State’s margin for error shrank with its loss to Oregon on Saturday, but Klatt believes the Nittany Lions still have a favorable enough schedule to make a CFP run.
"They still have to play Ohio State. They still have to play Indiana. In this scenario, I'm saying that they win one of those games," Klatt said. "Let's say it's Indiana. That would be their best win by far. And you would look at this and you would say to yourself, like, you know, there's some better wins ahead of them."
Penn State’s only remaining games against ranked opponents are Ohio State and Indiana, though the team has to travel to Iowa for a tough matchup at Kinnick Stadium. While James Franklin has struggled against top-10 teams, he’s consistently taken care of the games he's expected to win throughout his tenure in Happy Valley.
10. Georgia
Klatt said that he considered putting Georgia at No. 9 but believes the committee would avoid having a Georgia-Alabama rematch in the first round. Still, the Bulldogs remain in his playoff field as he likes their chances of going 10-2.
"Their toughest remaining games are at home, which is huge for them," Klatt said. "Even though they just lost at home, that was the nation's longest home winning streak. Ole Miss at home. Texas at home. They've got neutral site games against Florida and Georgia Tech. I don't see them going 9-3."
Kirby Smart might be the highest floor raiser of any coach in the country, helping Georgia win at least 10 regular-season games in each of the last seven seasons (excluding the COVID-shortened 2020 season). So, betting on Georgia to win 10 games is a smart wager to make.
11. Notre Dame
Notre Dame gets the final at-large bid in Klatt’s October CFP projection. While that might be surprising considering Notre Dame’s 0-2 start, Klatt said he’s unsure how much the committee will penalize the Fighting Irish for close losses to two teams already in the CFP field.
Still, the margin is thin for Notre Dame the rest of the way, but Klatt believes they're in a good position to make a run.
"I think that they're going to kill people the rest of the year with a really potent offense and maybe one of the best quarterbacks in the country," Klatt said.
CJ Carr has been a revelation at quarterback for Notre Dame, throwing for 1,092 yards, nine touchdowns and two interceptions through his first four collegiate starts. The Fighting Irish also don’t have any games remaining against ranked foes.
12. USF
After naming USF the top Group of 6 team last week, Klatt projects them to take the non-power conference automatic bid with wins over Florida and Boise State this season.
"I think South Florida is still a team that, at their top end, is probably the best team in that league," Klatt said, adding that he thinks the winner of the AAC will likely get this spot.
Just missed:
Indiana, Michigan, Tennessee, Oklahoma
For Indiana and Michigan, Klatt wondered if either team could get a win strong enough to push them into his playoff field.
"Can Michigan get to that Ohio State game with only one loss? Might be tough," Klatt said. "They've got no ranked teams before that game. So they're not going to have anything marquee."
As for Tennessee, Klatt likes the Vols, but their loss to Georgia might hurt them if they’re the last two SEC teams vying for an at-large bid. And for Oklahoma, the John Mateer injury threw a wrench in trying to project how the Sooners will perform with six games against ranked opponents still on the schedule.
"We don't know exactly how he's going to look once he gets healthy," Klatt said of Mateer. "We don't know if he's going to be able to play the rest of the season after that. And their November is brutal."
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