2025 NASCAR Playoff Picture: Who's In, Who's Nervous, Who's Got To Win

Published July 16, 2025

As the regular season winds down and drivers make a run to land a spot in the NASCAR Cup Series playoffs, those outside the cutline are looking for wins.

A win guarantees a spot in the playoffs unless there are more winners than spots available. The 16 spots go to the regular-season champion and then 15 drivers based on wins with tiebreakers by points.

Right now, there have been 13 winners and the regular-season champion will most likely be a driver who has won a race. So unless there are four new winners in the final four races (or three new winners and winless Tyler Reddick makes up a 71-point deficit to win the regular-season title), everyone with a win will get in.

The four races remaining in the regular season: Iowa (0.875-mile oval), Watkins Glen (road course), Richmond (0.75-mile oval) and Daytona (2.5-mile drafting oval).

Of these tracks, the most likely places for upset winners are Watkins Glen, Richmond and Daytona.

So it's most likely that there will be at most three new winners. Here’s a breakdown of who’s in and who’s on the bubble when it comes to points and who needs a win.

Guaranteed Spots

Drivers with multiple wins, locked into the playoffs: All these drivers have at least three wins — Kyle Larson, Denny Hamlin (he's got four), Christopher Bell and Shane van Gisbergen. Chase Elliott and William Byron — both with one win apiece — are also locked in because they have enough points that there is no way they can be last among those with one win.

Denny Hamlin owns a series-high four wins this season after conquering Dover.

Have A Win, No Worries

These drivers might not be mathematically locked in yet with one win, but they are not in danger of being the odd driver out if there are more winners than spots: Ryan Blaney, Chase Briscoe, Bubba Wallace, Ross Chastain, Joey Logano.

Have A Win, Tiny Worry

These drivers might have to battle it out on points if they don’t win again and there are more winners than spots: Austin Cindric and Josh Berry. Only 25 points separate these two drivers, with Cindric ahead. Cindric is 79 points behind Chastain as far as the standings of drivers with one win.

No Win, Tiny Worry

Tyler Reddick. Reddick does have a small shot at repeating as the regular-season champion, but he also has a 75-point cushion on Alex Bowman, who is second in points among winless drivers.

On Points Bubble

If there are two new winners, these drivers would most likely miss the field (unless they are among those winners). Here is how the bubble looks:

Bowman (+63 on the current cutoff), Chris Buescher (+42) and Ryan Preece (-42).

Kyle Busch is squarely on the playoff bubble entering the homestretch of the regular season.

Must Win

The other 19 drivers either need incredible runs and luck without a win or more likely a victory to make the playoffs: Kyle Busch (-81), Ty Gibbs (-95), AJ Allmendinger (-124), Michael McDowell (-129), John Hunter Nemechek (-134), Erik Jones (-147), Carson Hocevar (-149), Brad Keselowski (-161), Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (-165), Zane Smith (-165), Todd Gilliland (-195), Justin Haley (-196), Austin Dillon (-203), Daniel Suarez (-208), Ty Dillon (-213), Cole Custer (-279), Noah Gragson (-284), Riley Herbst (-297) and Cody Ware (-410).

Of those drivers, eight have never won a Cup race: Gibbs, Nemechek, Hocevar, Gilliland, Ty Dillon, Gragson, Herbst and Ware.

Iowa Outlook

This will be just the second Cup race at Iowa. Blaney won the inaugural event last year. Of drivers who need a playoff spot, Stenhouse was fifth. Bowman (eighth), Suarez (ninth) and Keselowski (10th) also finished in the top 10.

Bob Pockrass covers NASCAR and INDYCAR for FOX Sports. He has spent decades covering motorsports, including over 30 Daytona 500s, with stints at ESPN, Sporting News, NASCAR Scene magazine and The (Daytona Beach) News-Journal. Follow him on Twitter @bobpockrass.

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